Eleições Parlamentares e maioria Socialista
A França que nossa imprensa não mostra
Todos os dias olho os jornais para ver se tem alguma notícia analítica sobres as eleições parlamentares na França. O primeiro turno foi domingo passado e o segundo será no próximo domingo.
Todas as projeções são de que a Esquerda fará uma boa maioria e que a Direita estará dividida entre o pessoal de Sarkozy e o pessoal de Le Pen. Será por isto que nossa Imprensa não mostra?
Mas, a Economist não é uma revista de esquerda, pelo contrário, é de direita, e, no entanto faz uma boa análise. Vou mostrá-la em inglês e depois tentarei ver se mostro em português.
A França voltou a sorrir e agora contribui efetivamente
para as pessoas estarem em primeiro lugar.
Leiam a matéria da revista Economist, em inglês:
Um Impulso para Hollande e a França.
A boost for Hollande
The Economist - Jun 11th 2012, 16:00 by S.P. | PARIS
FRANCE’S President François Hollande looks set to consolidate his party’s grip on power after voting in the first round of parliamentary elections on June 10th. In a poll marked by relatively low turn-out, his Socialist Party and its Green friends secured nearly 40% of the national vote, next to 35% for the UMP on the right. This sets the Socialists up to obtain what could be a solid parliamentary majority at the run-off vote next Sunday.
According to projections after first-round results the Socialists alone could grab between 275 and 329 seats in the National Assembly, France’s parliament. This means that the party by itself might obtain the 289 seats out of a total of 577 seats in the National Assembly that are necessary to form a majority.
If not, the Socialist Party is likely to hook up with the Green party, which took 6% of the vote and is expected to get between eight and 18 seats in the National Assembly. The two parties have a pre-electoral pact. Together they are almost certain to obtain a majority without the need to hook up with the hard leftists of the Left Front.
In one of the first round’s biggest upsets, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the fiery Left Front leader, was beaten into third place in the northern constituency of Hénin-Beaumont. The far-right National Front’s Marine Le Pen topped polling there, with 42% of the vote. A crushed Mr Mélenchon announced that he was dropping out of the race, leaving the Socialist candidate to oppose Ms Le Pen in the run-off.
The National Front (FN) in general did less well than at the presidential election last month, when Ms Le Pen scored 17.9%. Last night the FN took only 13.6% of the parliamentary vote, less than the 14.9% Jean-Marie Le Pen, Ms Le Pen’s father, managed at parliamentary elections in 1997. Only three constituencies look winnable for the FN, including Ms Le Pen’s. (The other two are in the south of France, one of which features her niece, Marion Maréchal-Le Pen). Under France’s electoral system, even those are not certain. If Ms Le Pen does win a seat, it will be the first time since 1997 that the National Front is represented in the French parliament.
The other potential upset concerns François Bayrou, the centrist leader, who came in second to the Socialist candidate in the south-western constituency where he was first elected in 1986. He now faces a three-way run-off because the UMP candidate there also scored the 12.5% needed to go through to the second round and refused to stand down in Mr Bayrou’s favour, since the centrist leader backed Mr Hollande for the presidential run-off. This will make it very difficult for Mr Bayrou to hold on to his seat.
If the second round confirms the first, the results open the way for a period of instability and in-fighting for the right. Jean-François Copé, the UMP leader, faces a tough challenger as heir to Nicolas Sarkozy, the defeated president, in the form of François Fillon, the former prime minister. The pair do not see eye to eye, and the battle for the leadership on the right could be bloody.
For Mr Hollande, however, the outlook is better than he could have hoped. As it is, the Socialist Party already controls most levers of political power in France: the presidency, the Senate, all but one of the 22 regions, a majority of departments, big towns and communes. And the French presidency is by itself a powerful institution.
At home, this means that Mr Hollande will have virtually untrammelled power to implement a programme that includes a partial reversal of Mr Sarkozy’s pension reform, to allow those who started work young to retire at 60, a top tax rate of 75%, and the creation of 60,000 new teaching jobs. His labour minister, Michel Sapin, is considering tightening up redundancy rules. Mr Hollande has also promised to boost the minimum wage.
In Europe too, an outright parliamentary majority would strengthen Mr Hollande’s hand. Unlike Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is under political and constitutional constraints, Mr Hollande looks likely to be free to do pretty much as he likes on France’s behalf in his effort to lead the fight against austerity.
How Mr Hollande squares this fight with his commitment to reduce France’s own budget deficit to 3% next year, however, is another matter. The IMF has said that, without further measures, the deficit will reach 3.9%. Mr Hollande may well not have to worry about tough talk to please the Left Front. But, should he need to tighten up on spending, he will have a lot of explaining to do to voters who have so far heard very little about it.